β Eredivisie 2018-19 Β· Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 89% | 88% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 8% | 12.44 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 4% | 4% | 26.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | β½ | Hakim Ziyech Β· AFC Ajax |
| 38' | β½ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar Β· AFC Ajax |
| 41' | π¨ | Tim Siekman Β· FC Emmen |
| 59' | β½ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar Β· AFC Ajax |
| 71' | β½ | DuΕ‘an TadiΔ Β· AFC Ajax |
| 86' | β½ (og) | Glenn Bijl Β· AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | β |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | β |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 236.00 | 815.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | β |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | β |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | β |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | β |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | β |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | β |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | β |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | β |
| elo | 1812.19 | 1499.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.86 | β |
| eye test v1 | 2.30 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | β |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | β |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | β |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | β |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | β |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | β |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | β |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | β |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | β |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | β |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | β |
| skill v1 | 2.06 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.30 | β |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 6.50 |
| squad age | 24.07 | β |
| state index | 1.48 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | β |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | β |