← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 42% | 47% | 2.28 | value: +7% |
| Graafschap win | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 48' | 🟨 | Myenty Abena · Graafschap |
| 50' | ⚽ | Karol Mets · NAC Breda |
| 65' | ⚽ | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 80' | 🟨 | Leeroy Owusu · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 17.00 | 594.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | — |
| elo | 1443.66 | 1415.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.60 | 57.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | — |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | — |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | — |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | — |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | — |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | — |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | — |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | — |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |