← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 43% | 43% | 2.27 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 30% | 26% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.48 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 43' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · VVV Venlo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dries Saddiki · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 10.00 | 1502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1481.22 | 1386.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.83 | -50.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.72 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.11 | -1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.60 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |