← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Perez, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 72% | 70% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 18% | 5.77 | value: +7% |
| VVV Venlo win | 12% | 12% | 8.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Jerold Promes · VVV Venlo |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
| 71' | ⚽ | Mateusz Klich · FC Utrecht |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days |
| 124.00 |
| 1405.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.12 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1608.35 | 1389.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.28 | -49.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| league points | 51.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.16 | -1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |