← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 39% | 32% | 2.52 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 35% | 40% | 2.77 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Leroy Labylle · VVV Venlo |
| 23' | ⚽ | Jannes Vansteenkiste · Roda JC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Torino Hunte · VVV Venlo |
| 48' | ⚽ | Adil Auassar · Roda JC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tsiy-William Ndenge · Roda JC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Mario Engels · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days |
| 1398.00 |
| 332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1410.25 | 1405.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.94 | 58.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 34.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.43 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |