← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Thu, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 85% | 89% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 9.75 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 5% | 4% | 18.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Ralf Seuntjens · VVV Venlo |
| 45' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 45' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 59' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 79' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 30 | Shots | 9 |
| 13 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 108.00 | 1388.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1826.43 | 1431.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.60 | -39.66 |
| eye test v1 | 1.60 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 70.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.68 | 26.50 |
| state index | 1.21 | -1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |