← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 37% | 33% | 2.65 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 35% | 37% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
| 64' | 🟨 | Dave Bulthuis · SC Heerenveen |
| 69' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Nemanja Mihajlović · SC Heerenveen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1383.00 | 682.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1426.53 | 1513.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.91 | 18.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.01 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |