← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 49% | 49% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 25% | 23% | 3.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Soufyan Ahannach · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 43' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
| 47' | 🟨 | Sherel Constancio Floranus · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 52' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sander Fischer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 81' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 26 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 96.00 | 1376.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1371.06 | 1436.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.83 | -9.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 21.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |