← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 38% | 43% | 2.53 | value: +9% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 34% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · FC Twente '65 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Adam Maher · FC Twente '65 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Torino Hunte · VVV Venlo |
| 68' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1370.00 | 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1438.90 | 1421.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.10 | -16.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.58 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.27 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |