← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 47% | 51% | 2.06 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 25% | 22% | 3.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jerold Promes · VVV Venlo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Rick Dekker · PEC Zwolle |
| 68' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 76' | 🟨 | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 276.00 | 1342.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1528.01 | 1448.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.62 | 8.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 39.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |