← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 43% | 46% | 2.26 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.35 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 28% | 24% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Torino Hunte · VVV Venlo |
| 24' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · VVV Venlo |
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Nils Röseler · Vitesse |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mason Mount · Vitesse |
| 74' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ralf Seuntjens · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1334.00 | 633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1446.15 | 1587.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.55 | 12.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.67 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |