← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 46% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.55 | value: +6% |
| FC Groningen win | 26% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 20' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Padt · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1326.00 | 564.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1464.42 | 1529.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.20 | -22.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 30.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.67 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 23.53 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |