← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 72% | 74% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.54 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 11% | 9% | 9.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Romeo Castelen · VVV Venlo |
| 68' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Iliass Bel Hassani · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1258.00 | 1320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1646.84 | 1439.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.09 | 31.25 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| league points | 46.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |