← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 38% | 36% | 2.55 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 34% | 35% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ben Rienstra · Willem II Tilburg |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jordy Croux · Willem II Tilburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Nils Röseler · VVV Venlo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jordy Croux · Willem II Tilburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tristan Dekker · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 0 | Fouls | 0 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| coach days | 616.00 | 1317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1427.38 | 1455.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.35 | 58.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| league points | 17.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.08 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |