← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 60% | 56% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.13 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 16% | 21% | 5.90 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 40' | 🟨 | Karim El Ahmadi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 57' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tonny Vilhena · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 87' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1314.00 | 1010.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1439.92 | 1715.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.75 | 6.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.93 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 2.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |