← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 40% | 30% | 2.40 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 32% | 40% | 3.05 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.51 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ralf Seuntjens · VVV Venlo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 72' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 73' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · VVV Venlo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 849.00 | 1306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1414.72 | 1428.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.36 | 30.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |