← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 43% | 51% | 2.25 | value: +14% |
| VVV Venlo win | 30% | 24% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jonathan Opoku · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ralf Seuntjens · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1449.00 | 1299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1504.40 | 1424.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.09 | 17.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |