← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 47% | 47% | 2.07 | fair |
| Heracles win | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · VVV Venlo |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 38' | 🟨 | Joey Pelupessy · Heracles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nils Röseler · VVV Venlo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Damian van Bruggen · VVV Venlo |
| 48' | 🟨 | Vincent Vermeij · Heracles |
| 54' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · VVV Venlo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 74' | 🟨 | Wout Droste · Heracles |
| 76' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1272.00 | 1241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1408.29 | 1503.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.41 | -10.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |