← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 39% | 32% | 2.51 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 33% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.42 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Torino Hunte · VVV Venlo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
| 83' | 🟥 | Adil Auassar · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days | 198.00 | 1264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1392.08 | 1396.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.62 | -3.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |