← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 44% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 28% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · VVV Venlo |
| 49' | ⚽ | Damian van Bruggen · VVV Venlo |
| 56' | 🟨 | Thom Haye · Willem II Tilburg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
| 62' | ⚽ | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ismail Azzaoui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
| 74' | ⚽ | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1243.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1407.88 | 1440.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.14 | 17.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.13 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |