← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 76% | 85% | 1.28 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 15% | 10% | 6.54 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 9% | 5% | 11.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 54' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 86' | ⚽ | Damian van Bruggen · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lars Unnerstall · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 2 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| coach days | 932.00 | 1236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.04 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1708.44 | 1400.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.41 | -11.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |