← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 47% | 54% | 2.06 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 26% | 22% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rai Vloet · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 1222.00 | 765.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1420.15 | 1422.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.12 | 1.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.78 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.44 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.78 | 22.62 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |