← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Perez, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 42% | 46% | 2.35 | value: +8% |
| VVV Venlo win | 31% | 28% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 35' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 54' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 1184.00 | 1215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1512.01 | 1411.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.82 | 7.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |