← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 24% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Torino Hunte · VVV Venlo |
| 66' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1208.00 | 1358.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1427.23 | 1471.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.92 | 21.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.57 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |