← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 38% | 49% | 2.57 | value: +27% |
| VVV Venlo win | 33% | 24% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 32' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ralf Seuntjens · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 425.00 | 1187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1463.48 | 1411.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.73 | 23.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |