← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 59% | 60% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.02 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 17% | 16% | 5.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · Vitesse |
| 38' | 🟨 | Leroy Labylle · VVV Venlo |
| 47' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 88' | 🟨 | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
| 89' | 🟨 | Guram Kashia · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Remko Pasveer · Vitesse |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Clint Leemans · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 473.00 | 1174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | — |
| elo | 1593.25 | 1404.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.33 | 50.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 64.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 69.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 41.25 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.75 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.75 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |