← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 86% | 74% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 17% | 9.35 | value: +59% |
| Graafschap win | 3% | 9% | 30.97 | value: +184% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 827.00 | 3599.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1400.02 | 1874.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.27 | 8.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 22.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 2.45 |
| state index | -0.37 | 1.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |