← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 76% | 73% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 6.84 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 10% | 13% | 9.64 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 608.00 | 820.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1667.11 | 1404.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.77 | 17.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 53.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 0.69 |
| state index | 0.60 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |