← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 48% | 43% | 2.05 | fair |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 26% | 33% | 3.68 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 791.00 | 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1383.75 | 1396.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.20 | -19.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| state index | -0.26 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |