← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 76% | 78% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.34 | value: +12% |
| Graafschap win | 8% | 5% | 11.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 323.00 | 777.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1656.36 | 1387.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.86 | 19.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 46.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 0.63 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |