← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.91 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 16% | 18% | 6.06 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1688.00 | 742.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1462.91 | 1350.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.02 | 35.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 21.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.55 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |