← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 71% | 80% | 1.37 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 5.96 | fair |
| Dordrecht win | 12% | 8% | 7.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dordrecht | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 715.00 | 3242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1363.84 | 1821.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.52 | -12.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| league points | 17.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 2.15 |
| state index | -1.20 | 1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |