← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 81% | 80% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 14% | 8.44 | value: +15% |
| Dordrecht win | 7% | 7% | 14.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1225.00 | 708.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1600.48 | 1369.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.40 | -13.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 43.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 0.53 |
| state index | -0.39 | -1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |