← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 87% | 84% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 10% | 11.18 | value: +17% |
| Dordrecht win | 5% | 5% | 20.60 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 686.00 | 686.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1671.06 | 1370.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.89 | -22.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| league points | 51.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 0.53 |
| state index | 1.10 | -1.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |