← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 62% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
| Dordrecht win | 16% | 16% | 6.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 192.00 | 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1447.07 | 1366.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.42 | -16.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.52 |
| state index | 0.05 | -1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |