← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 44% | 39% | 2.23 | fair |
| Dordrecht win | 30% | 35% | 3.24 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dordrecht | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 672.00 | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1376.36 | 1454.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.72 | 6.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| league points | 15.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 0.89 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |