← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 75% | 72% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.04 | value: +10% |
| VVV Venlo win | 9% | 10% | 10.38 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 315.00 | 711.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1637.09 | 1354.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.81 | -0.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 64.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 0.76 |
| state index | 0.53 | -1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |