← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 39% | 41% | 2.49 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 34% | 31% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 704.00 | 3869.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1351.97 | 1484.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.18 | 47.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 24.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.31 |
| state index | -1.13 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |