← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 43% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 30% | 25% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.58 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 681.00 | 1197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1353.12 | 1478.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.92 | 4.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| league points | 22.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.03 |
| state index | -1.31 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |