← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 64% | 71% | 1.52 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.34 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 13% | 11% | 7.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1577.99 | 1358.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.76 | 0.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.81 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |