← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 39% | 33% | 2.48 | fair |
| Heracles win | 34% | 40% | 2.84 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 654.00 | 989.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1391.25 | 1514.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.77 | -10.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 22.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |