← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 85% | 88% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.00 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 5% | 4% | 19.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 640.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1740.73 | 1384.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.61 | 18.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 0.92 |
| state index | 1.18 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |