← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 37% | 34% | 2.65 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 34% | 32% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.36 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 633.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1394.73 | 1463.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.53 | -41.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.69 | -1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |