← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Fri, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 58% | 70% | 1.69 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.05 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 18% | 9% | 5.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 595.00 | 625.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1556.51 | 1357.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.85 | -29.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 33.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.73 |
| state index | 0.36 | -1.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |