← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 72% | 70% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +7% |
| VVV Venlo win | 12% | 13% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 340.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1348.56 | 1707.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.17 | -29.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 28.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.82 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |