← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 61% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 15% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 310.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1454.04 | 1350.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.48 | 18.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 32.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.64 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |