← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 48% | 45% | 1.95 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 306.00 | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1352.83 | 1331.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.64 | -23.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| state index | -0.81 | -1.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |