← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 84% | 91% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 5% | 9.00 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 5% | 4% | 21.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2132.00 | 336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1831.61 | 1372.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.86 | -10.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| league points | 70.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 0.88 |
| state index | 2.13 | -1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |