← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 41% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 332.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1337.92 | 1471.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.92 | -3.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.03 |
| state index | -1.37 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |