← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 61% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 15% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3496.00 | 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1461.04 | 1348.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.92 | 3.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 35.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.61 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.92 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |